The Cleveland Cavaliers are currently enjoying having the 5th best record in all of basketball. They sit at 44-28–as of March 16th–and look like a completely different team than last year. Adding a multi-time all-star in Donovan Mitchell during the summer was a big reason for this, but not the only reason. In this article, we’re going to look at the analytics that show why the Cavs are one of the best teams in the league.
Temperature Check
It’s a great time to be a Cavs fan. The post-LeBron rebuild has been accelerated exponentially by the break-outs of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Adding Mitchell stamped the Cavs as a win-now team. Despite being a win-now team, they’re still one of the younger teams in the league. Their players have time and room to grow. I think we all expected the Cavs to be a solid team this year, but they’ve surpassed expectations and are a real threat to compete for a title right now, in my opinion.
Team Stats
Let’s take a look at their offensive production. Adding a guy like Spida is bound to elevate your offense–and he does just that. Last season, the Cavs finished with the 19th best offense in the NBA. Now, they’re sitting at the 9th best offense in the NBA. It’s easy to point the finger at Mitchell for this increase in production, but–as a whole–they’ve been much healthier this season. As a team, the Cavs like to shoot from everywhere on the court. While Garland and Mitchell are both exceptional at creating their own shot and pulling-up from deep, they find their most success hitting the roll man in a pick-and-roll for an easy basket. The Cavs have the 5th best fg% in the NBA around the rim and it’s because Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen get so many free dunks. Mobley currently has the most dunks in the NBA at 183; furthermore, 46.5% of his possessions end in a dunk. Continually, Allen is 4th in the association in dunks at 165. Almost half (49.1%) of his possessions are dunks! Now, we know Mobley and Allen aren’t putting the ball on the floor a whole lot in order to get to the rim to throw it down like they do. Instead, the defense has to show Garland and Mitchell so much attention that it leads to many open looks around the basket for the big fellas.
Defensively, these Cavs are no joke. They boast the 3rd best defense in the NBA. A big part of this reason is because of the twin towers we just discussed. Combined, these two average almost three blocks per game. Teams are also a lot more reluctant to drive to the goal aggressively because they know either one of these 7-footers may be on the prowl. While these two players most certainly get a lot of blocks, the defense as a whole makes its money with steals. They force the 4th most turnovers in the NBA and have the most points in the NBA in transition off of steals. These young guys like to run, and all these steals they force allow them to do just that.
The Cavs definitely have their priorities of what shots they want to allow the other team to take. Their coach–J.B. Bickerstaff–has made it clear he doesn’t want to give up non-corner three balls. Last season, they gave-up the least amount of non-corner threes in the league. This season, they’re giving up the 4th least non-corner threes. They do, however, give up plenty of corner threes and teams have been making them at a very high clip (42.4%). They have the second worst corner three defense in the NBA. The reason why they give up so many corner threes is because they prefer to rotate away from the corner in order to contest shots around the rim. They have the second best rim defense this season, and had the best rim protection last season. J.B. Bickerstaff has his priorities on defense, and while many people call the corner three the best shot in basketball, it’s hard to argue against his scheme when they have the 3rd best defense.
Player Stats
Donovan Mitchell
Spida is having himself a career year. This season has been the most efficient shooting season of his career. His eFG% is at 56.9%, putting him in the 85th-percentile. He’s also shooting a solid 39% from three this season, which is very good considering the amount of difficult threes that he takes. To highlight this, let’s take a look at how many corner threes he takes compared to non-corner threes:
Corner = 14/35
Non-corner = 189/487
For every corner three Mitchell takes, he attempts 14 more non-corner threes. Despite having a floor general in Garland, Spida doesn’t find himself in the corner too often. Moreover, not many of his makes are assisted. He does, though, still prefer to let it fly from deep. 44% of his attempts are threes, while only 25% of his attempts are at the rim.
Individual defense can be hard to measure, but he’s definitely been having one of his better defensive seasons. In the past, Mitchell was targeted by opposing teams in the playoffs because he was often just a traffic cone out there. Now, he’s at least an average defender.
Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen
I’m grouping these two together because they have largely similar roles to each other and have very similar numbers compared to last season. Mobley hasn’t had the second-year jump like many people expected, but that’s not a bad thing. He’s still been giving the team really good offensive and defensive production. It’s hard for him to take much of an offensive leap when his usage rate is down since adding Donovan Mitchell to the squad. As previously discussed, these two bigs prefer to get fed in the paint. They take almost all their shots in the paint and are serious lob threats.
Lineups
Here are the Cavs four most used lineups this season:
Garland, Mitchell, Okoro, Mobley, Allen → 720 possessions
Garland, Mitchell, LeVert, Mobley, Allen → 386 possessions
Garland, Mitchell, Stevens, Mobley, Allen → 301 possessions
Garland, LeVert, Okoro, Mobley, Allen → 197 possessions
Despite the Cavs giving Isaac Okoro more minutes with the starters, they actually have a better offense and defense when LeVert is in his place. They have a 13.4 point differential per 100 possessions when LeVert replaces Okoro. Surprisingly, the lineup with LeVert instead of Spida (#4) is actually their best offensive lineup. That lineup is at an astounding 129.9 pts per 100 possessions. However, this lineup is also their worst defensive lineup.
The team’s offense tends to run a bit differently when LeVert or Okoro is out there. With LeVert in, they take a lot more midranges. With Okoro in, they take a lot more corner threes. Despite being looked at as a bad shooter, Okoro is shooting 37% from corner threes on his 134 attempts. On the flip side, he’s only shooting 19% on his bizarrely low 16 non-corner threes. Okoro is a bit of an offensive liability, so Bickerstaff has him sit in the corner for open threes and cuts when the defense doubles the attacking ball-handler.
Cap Flexibility
As a whole, the Cavs have their players on rather team-friendly contracts. Furthermore, they have their core locked-up for a few years. Mitchell, Allen, Garland, and Mobley are all under contract until 2026. This alleviates some of the pressure of feeling like they need to win a championship right now. While their expectations are high and they certainly feel capable, time is on their side. A big question mark for this off-season is what the Cavs want to do with LeVert. His contract expires this season, and if there was one position the Cavs could use an upgrade in, it’s his. The only thing this Cavs team is missing is wing depth. They could use a veteran presence on the wing that can come in and knock-down open shots while not needing the ball in his hands. A player like Dorian Finney-Smith would fit perfectly on this team and it seems like the Nets would let go of him in a heartbeat for the right price.
Final Thoughts
It’s a great time to be a Cavs fan once again! It’s been hard for Clevelanders to say that when LeBron isn’t living in their city. However, the Cavs have turned a leaf and are now one of the most exciting teams in basketball. They’ve built themselves a really good foundation that is just about ready to compete for a title. Rebuilds don’t normally happen this fast, but adding a guy like Donovan Mitchell will definitely expedite the process. While they may have given up almost all their picks to get him, they shouldn’t need those picks because things are shaping up for them to be a top team in the East for the foreseeable future. Get hype, Cavs fans! And let's get the Larry O'Brien back in a small market teams' hands.
Stats via cleaningtheglass.com and basketball-reference.com
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