Welcome to my first Deep Dive. In this series, I’m going to go in-depth with each small market team to check each team’s temperature and look at team stats, player stats, lineups, cap flexibility, and what the team might be planning for the future.
In this Deep Dive, I’m going to put a magnifying glass over the Utah Jazz.
Temperature Check
The Jazz started off the season on fire, beginning their season with a 10-3 record. Their offense was free-flowing and Will Hardy was an early Coach of the Year candidate. Times have changed in Utah, though. Since then, they’ve gone 17-24 and find themselves in the NBA’s hell-hole: mediocrity. No team wants to be in the middle of the standings because they’re likely not good enough to make a deep playoff run, while at the same time aren’t bad enough to draft a generational talent that can take them to the promised land. This coming draft class, especially, is one that every team would pay top dollar for a top pick.
Team Stats
As of February 6th, the Jazz offense has been good enough for a 118.0 offensive rating, giving them the 3rd best offense in the NBA. This is a complete surprise considering most people’s expectations for them going into the season. As we know, the Jazz traded one of the premier scorers in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell this past offseason. Everyone and their mother had the Jazz in the Wembanyama sweepstakes before we could even see them on the floor together. While the Jazz probably wish they were in the Wemby sweepstakes, there are plenty of good things to take away from how this season has shaped out so far.
In recent years, the Jazz have consistently boasted a top 5 offense centered around the Donovan Mitchell/Rudy Gobert pick-and-roll. While this was an effective offense, it was never enough to make the conference finals and year after year Jazz fans were left with disappointment. It was time to blow it up, and the Jazz did just that. Naturally any team is going to be significantly worse, especially offensively, but Utah has been able ease into their rebuild compared to other teams.
Their offense went from having the highest offensive rating in the regular season last year, to now owning the 3rd best offensive rating. This is a credit to how great of a job Will Hardy has done. The Jazz do a great job at cutting and finding the best look. They make quick decisions and no one is selfish with the basketball. This has led to their offense to continue to thrive despite losing a player that can put up 70 points in a game.
One area that the Jazz have seen a steep drop-off in is on the defensive end. Taking into account they lost players like Rudy Gobert and Royce O’neal, it’s not a surprise that this decrease has happened. Gobert is a three time DPOY and was valued as such this past offseason. The Jazz have gone from the 9th best defense in the 2021-2022 season to now owning the 26th best defense so far in 2022-2023. Under the Gobert era, the Jazz posted two number one ranked defenses and one number two ranked defense. In the past, defense was never a problem for the Jazz until playoffs came around and their generational defender became unplayable.
Player Stats
Jordan Clarkson
Clarkson went from being the bucket off the bench to the primary ball-handler in a short amount of time. He has gone from only starting in 1 of the 79 games he played last season to now starting all 53 games he’s played in. Despite this, his usage rate has only gone up 2% and he’s had to change his game for the betterment of the team. Clarkson is currently averaging a career high in assists/game. We’ve seen him become a much more willing passer instead of him thinking that his only role on the team was to get a bucket when needed. He’s become much more of a team player, and overall, the entire Jazz team has shared the wealth and played more like a team than in year’s past.
The question still remains if the Jazz should trade Clarkson. He’s 30 years old and doesn’t seem to fit the timeline of the rebuild. Furthermore, he only has one year left on his deal after this season, where he is set to become an unrestricted free agent.
Lauri Markkanen
You know we had to talk about him. Lauri has one of if not the biggest surprise of the ‘22/23 season. From what seemed to be fodder in the Donovan Mitchell trade to a no-brainer all-star, Lauri’s been continuing to shut up opposing fans and GM’s around the league. Danny Ainge, Will Hardy, and the rest of the Utah Jazz organization saw a vision of what Lauri could be for their team after seeing him compete in the FIBA World Cup. He showed that he is capable of putting the ball on the floor and creating his own shot, something he wasn’t ever given the green light to do on his past teams. In Utah, Lauri has been given the keys and showing everyone why he was a #7 overall pick.
Every player in the NBA wants the ball, and now, Lauri is getting his fair share. Last season in Cleveland, we saw Markkanen post a 17.6% usage rate. Now, in Utah, Lauri boasts a 22.2% usage rate, putting him in the 87th-percentile. Moreover, we see him putting up almost 5 more shots per game compared to last year. In the past, Lauri has been mostly a spot-up three point shooter. Last year, 51% of his total attempts were from beyond the three-point line compared to only 42% this year. Despite these percentages, Markkanen is actually shooting one more three a game because of his increase in shot attempts. He went from shooting 36% from deep in Cleveland to a mouth-watering 43% in Utah. Oh, and he went from averaging 15 ppg. to 25 ppg., solidifying himself as an all-star and a foundation piece for the Utah Jazz.
Mike Conley
The 16-year NBA vet has been drawing a lot of attention from GM’s around the league. Teams such as the Clippers and Timberwolves are interested because they need a primary ball-handler like him who can set-up the offense. Before this season, Conley was looked at as an overpaid vet that no team wanted to trade for. Now, he has become a big part of the Jazz’s success on offense. When he got injured earlier in the season, the Jazz immediately lost the fire they had. Their offense lost its flow and they dropped many games because of it. Seeing how bad the Jazz were without him on the floor made rival GM’s realize how much of an impact he can make.
Mike Conley almost seems like the most obvious person to trade. He’s 35 years old and doesn’t come close to fitting the Jazz’s timeline. Hell, he’s even older than the head coach. Now would be the time to trade Conley because he only has one year left on his deal after this season and his value is the highest it’s been in a couple years.
Walker Kessler
To many people’s surprise, Walker Kessler has made nearly the same defensive impact as the three-time DPOY Rudy Gobert. Kessler–an afterthought in the Gobert trade–has made his presence known in Utah and is there to stay for the foreseeable future. In only twenty minutes per game, Kessler is averaging a whopping two blocks per game. He sits at second in block% out all players to post at least 600 minutes on the entire season. He’s higher than Rudy Gobert and only behind DPOY frontrunner Jaren Jackson Jr.
Lineups:
The Jazz have run five different lineups for over 100 possessions this season:
Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Olynyk → 629 poss.
Sexton, Clarkson, Markkanen, Vanderbilt, Olynyk → 278 poss.
Conley, Clarkson, Beasley, Markkanen, Kessler → 184 poss.
Conley, Clarkson, Beasley, Markkanen, Vanderbilt → 129 poss.
Conley, Clarkson, Markkanen, Olynyk, Kessler → 123 poss.
As we can see, the Jazz primarily prefer to play smaller than most teams, but, is it how they play best? Their most used lineup is currently only averaging 112.7 points/100 poss., putting them in the 37th percentile. Conversely, their second most used lineup (Sexton instead of Conley) is averaging 132.4 points/100 poss., putting them in the 95th percentile. While it is a significantly smaller amount of possessions, it seems clear that Sexton meshes well offensively with this core going forward. The Jazz have proven that their small(ish) ball lineup with Olynyk at the five can produce offense; however, when they add Kessler to the lineup, their defense is taken to new heights. With their fifth most used lineup (w/ Kessler and Olynyk) the Jazz only give up 100 points per 100 possessions–good enough to put them in the 95th percentile. When Kessler comes out the court, opponents eFG% drops by 4.1% (96th percentile) and by 6.0% around the rim (93rd percentile).
Cap Flexibility
Even without having a max player on the roster, Utah is still $20 mil. above the salary cap. Furthermore, Rudy Gay and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the only players on expiring contracts. Here are some important contracts to note:
Conley has one year remaining after this season and will be making $24.4 mil.
Markkanen is locked up until 2025. He is on one of the best deals in the NBA–making around $18 mil./year.
Beasley has a team option next season for $16.5 mil.
THT has a player option next season for $11 mil.
Clarkson has a player option next season for $14.3 mil.
Potential Future Plans
The Jazz kicked their hopes for a championship down the road by trading Mitchell and Gobert, with no real expectations of competing for a title with anyone on the current roster. However, this season has given Utah an idea of who may be around when (if) they’re in the title conversation again. Some building blocks for the future include (but are not limited to) Markkanen, Kessler, Sexton, and Vanderbilt. These four players have proven to be valuable NBA players that any team would want. They are all rather young and can fit around other ball-dominant players. Who the future ball-dominant player of Utah is impossible to say, but they’re likely currently in high school still studying Algebra. The Jazz picks are far into the future and it’s hard to really predict how this team will look in a few years. Many people on their team are currently rumored to be traded, so we may have a better outlook of their future after the deadline.
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