The Pelicans are a team that has faced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout this season. As a season ticket holder myself, these are the exact emotions that I felt and could see on the players' faces on a nightly basis. As you can tell, I’m a very passionate Pels fan, but am going to do my best to be as unbiased as possible in this Deep Dive.
Temperature Check
The Pelicans are a hard team to get a read on without Zion in the lineup. With him, they were comfortably a top three team in the West and were being talked about as a contender to reach the finals. After the recent ten game losing streak and other Western conference teams making massive upgrades, the narrative has seemed to shift around the Pelicans. Many Pels fans wanted to make a big trade and offload some of our assets before the deadline in order to compete with the seemingly loaded Western conference. Instead, David Griffin and the front office decided to think about the bigger picture. They decided to trade Devonte Graham and 4 seconds for Josh Richardson. It’s important to note that Devonte is looked at around the league as a negative asset seeing that he’s set to make $12.7 mil next year and hasn’t produced to near that value. Conversely, Josh Richardson is on an expiring contract and is looked at as a slightly above average role player. Making this move will add to the wing depth off the bench and keep the Pelicans out of the luxury tax next season. Something they seem to love to do…
Pelicans fans should feel confident seeing that we have the easiest schedule remaining in the NBA and Zion set to return in (hopefully) a few weeks. However, we should not have confidence in the front office telling us accurate information about our players’ health status. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson have both been out longer than expected this season (I don’t even want to talk about Zion last season) and the front office has failed to give information on their health status. Continually, David Griffin has just announced that Zion will miss even more time and hasn’t given a timetable for return. As a season ticket holder, this has been very frustrating because it affects me financially. Tickets to games are much less when Zion is in street clothes; moreover, some people don’t want to buy tickets weeks in advance because they can’t guarantee that Zion will be back on the court by then.
Whenever Zion actually does get back and playing with BI, the Pels should start seeing themselves winning a lot more games and being looked at again as a team that nobody in the West wants to see in a 7 game series.
Team Stats
As of writing this, the Pelicans see themselves with a 29-28 record. They currently own the 14th best offense and 10th best defense. While this is nothing to complain about, the Pelicans boasted a top 5 offense and defense for a decent portion of the season. Seeing that the Pelicans are currently 14th in offensive rating, it’s no surprise that they’re middle of the pack in most shooting categories. They’re currently 15th in the league in 3pt% at 36.5%, but shoot the 26th most threes at the same time. The Pelicans have never been a team to rely on the three, though. They prefer to get two feet in the paint with either Zion or Jonas. Players such as Naji Marshall and Herb Jones also prefer to immediately drive on a close-out from a defending player instead of settling for a catch-and-shoot three. This has led to the Pelicans shooting the 6th most shots at the rim despite having two mid range assassins in Ingram and McCollum.
The Pelicans have been a pleasant surprise on the defensive end this season. Many people wrote off the Pelicans before the season because people thought Zion was a traffic cone on defense. However, he’s been better than expected and ranks in the 76th percentile for all bigs for team defensive impact while on the court. One area that the Pelicans really lack in is rim protection. Opponents shoot 72%(!) at the rim against them–ranking the Pelicans dead last in that category. Jonas Valanciunas has been put in some tough situations defending the pick-and-roll and has quite frankly done a terrible job at defending it. Larry Nance Jr. does a much better job at defending the pick-and-roll because he can switch on to guards. Because of this, we’ve seen him in the closing lineup for almost every game this season.
Now, you wouldn’t think the tenth best defense in the NBA would be the worst team at defending the paint. The Pelicans have been able to be an above average defense because of their surprisingly good perimeter defense. They hold teams to the lowest 3pt% in the league at 34.7%. Opponents also shoot the 5th least amount of threes against the Pelicans. It’s clear that Willie Green’s defensive scheme has its priority: stop the three ball. And, it seems to work. It also leaves you wondering how good this defense can be with a true rim protector.
Player Stats
Zion Williamson
Being the generational talent that he is, Zion is going to be the focal point on any team. The Pelicans didn’t seem to favor him as much at the beginning of the season as he was getting acclimated to playing with many of his teammates for the first time. It didn’t take long though for Willie Green to realize that they needed to play through Zion, especially without Ingram in lineup for the vast majority of the season. Zion ranks in the 96th percentile for usage % and the Pelicans have needed every bit of his play. He can get to the rim at will and shoot the ball with extreme efficiency. He’s unstoppable and every opponent’s defensive scheme is built to stop him. Zion gets shown plenty of bodies when attacking, forcing him to kick to open shooters. Zion has an innate and underrated passing ability. He grew up playing point guard and his instincts have seemed to translate well to the NBA. To no surprise, Zion ranks in the 95th percentile in teammate 3pt% when he passes them the ball. His teammates are treated to many more open looks when he has the ball.
While there are no questions about Zion’s impact on the offensive end, he’s been slandered for what seemed to be underwhelming defense since joining the league. I will admit he hasn’t looked great in the past, but this year he’s had a real impact on the defensive end. Per 100 possessions that he’s on the court, opponents score almost five less points. While five points doesn’t seem like a whole lot, it’s good enough to put him in the 85th percentile and show that he makes a real impact. Zion has at least proven to be a good team defender and not someone who will be targeted by opposing offenses.
CJ McCollum
After a rocky start to the season, many Pelicans fans were questioning CJ’s shot selection and the price of his fresh contract he received in the summer. Thankfully, these two concerns have seemed to have gone away. McCollum has been indispensable to the offense this season, especially with his two star teammates in street clothes more often than Pelicans jerseys. We all know what CJ brings to the table and his numbers are largely similar to year’s past, so I won’t spend much time talking about him. It is important to note how impactful he’s been off the court. CJ quickly became the leader of the team upon being traded from Portland to NOLA. While Garrett Temple might have been able to provide some vet experience, it is nothing compared to CJ. Being the president of the NBPA, people listen when he speaks. CJ is one of the most respected members around the league; furthermore, he has experience going deep in the playoffs and putting his team on his back when they need him the most. Also, CJ now works for ESPN and is often talking about the Pels via his podcast or during daytime TV. He’s helped shine a light on the Pelicans to other NBA fanbases–something that the national media fails time-and-time again to do.
Trey Murphy
Trigga Trey has been crucial to the Pels this season. Some games it feels like he’s the only person in a Pelicans jersey that can make a three-ball. He’s the lone wolf in the 40% from deep club on the team (min. 200 minutes). Despite Trey having one of the lowest usage rates on the team (13.5%), he’s been scoring in a variety of ways to get up to his 13.1 ppg. We all know he can shoot, but it’s attacking the rim where TM3 has made the biggest strides. At the rim, Trey is dead middle in shot attempts for wings; however, he’s been very efficient in his attempts shooting 76% at the rim (93rd percentile). Furthermore, he’s also in the 96th percentile for eFG% for wings at 61.9%.
One concern for Trey is his defense. People are quick to call him a 3&D player because of his knock-down shooting and length, but this is unfortunately not the case. While defensive impact is hard to measure with 100% accuracy, teams are averaging an extra 6.5 pts per 100 poss. That’s no bueno, and is bad enough to put him all the way down in the 8th percentile for all players in this category. While the defensive impact may not be there now, I’m confident Trey can at least be an average/above average defender given his length, size, and athleticism.
Kira Lewis Jr.
I’m going to make this short and sweet because we haven’t seen a whole lot of Kira this season, but what we’ve seen is worth mentioning. We’ve only got 8 games to go off, but the advanced stats are shocking. Kira is shooting in the 99th(!) percentile for guards in terms of eFG%. He’s also shooting 77% at the rim, putting him in the 96th percentile for guards. Continually, he’s scoring at a rate of 128 points per 100 shot attempts, good enough to put him in the 97th percentile for guards. Again, the sample size is very limited, but there’s not much negative to say about Kira. I thought he was starting to turn a leaf last season until he tore his ACL. Now, he seems to have picked up where he left off and we can see his improvement with the more minutes he gets.
Josh Richardson
Richardson is the newest member of the Pelicans and has yet to suit-up for a game yet. Because of this, I’m not gonna dive too deep into his play, but let’s see how he may contribute to this Pelicans team. The Pels mainly got him to be a 3&D guy, so let’s see how he fairs in these two categories. He’s shooting about 36% from deep on 5 attempts/game. Based on this, Richardson is the 4th best shooter from deep on his new team and has been a slightly better shooter than Devonte Graham this season. I expect Richardson to be a floor spacer and take most of his threes from the corner given how the Pelicans offense is built. Here’s a look at his shot chart from this season:
As we can see, most of his shots come from non-corner threes and short mid-ranges. He’s been an above average corner 3-point shooter in the past and we already have a couple mid-range assassins, so I expect this shot chart to look fairly different while he’s in a Pels jersey. Defensively, teams average -1.4 points/100 poss. when he’s been on the floor for the Spurs–and we know they can’t guard a parked car. He’s proven in the past to be far from a defensive liability and he’ll add to the depth of defensive wings the Pelicans already have.
Lineups
Below are the five most used lineups from the Pelicans this season. Take it with a grain of salt considering the injuries that have plagued the team.
CJ, Trey, BI, Herb, Jonas → 235 poss.
CJ, BI, Herb, Zion, Jonas → 232 poss.
CJ, Dyson(?!), Naji, Trey, Jonas → 161 poss.
CJ, Trey, Herb, Zion, Jonas → 150 poss.
CJ, Naji, Trey, Herb, Jonas → 145 poss.
As we can see, the Pelicans have been putting out a lot of different lineups. This can be highlighted from my Jazz Deep Dive. The Jazz have a 506 poss. difference between their most used and 5th most used lineup, compared to the Pels who only have a 90 poss. difference.
The fluctuating lineups have not been by choice, though. Injuries have caused the Pelicans to play many different combinations of guys. Luckily for the Pels, they have a plethora of players who can play multiple positions and defend.
I want to specifically look at how their lineup performs with CJ, BI, and Zion all in the lineup. While the minutes together are limited, these minutes are important because they give us a peek of how the team can look at full health. In the 232 possessions they’ve played together, they outscored their opponents by more than 10 points per 100 possessions. This is an exceptional number, and puts the Pels in the 72nd percentile for all 5-man lineups with at least 100 possessions. While 72nd percentile doesn’t seem Earth shattering, this number is rather skewed because of the 100 poss. requirement. For example, Jose, Devonte, Naji, Zion, and Larry have only played 113 possessions together and outscored their opponents by 42 points per 100 possessions(!). This number is ridiculous and is obviously good enough to have the highest rated offense and defense in the NBA.
Cap Flexibility
The Pelicans have two players on expiring contracts in Jaxson Hayes and Josh Richardson. Many Pelicans fans assume Jaxson will find a new home next season in spite of him being a restricted free agent this summer. I’m not sure what the Pelicans intentions are with Josh Richardson yet since we haven’t seen him on the floor. It seems, though, that the Pelicans won’t re-sign him in order to avoid the luxury tax…once again…Yay…
Potential Future Plans
After the trade deadline it’s clear that Griff wants to use the Pelicans draft capital in order to upgrade for a win-now player. While no significant deal was made, the Pels were involved with many other teams in trade discussions. The Pelicans were really high on OG Anunoby, but Masai Ujiri and the Raptors were asking for too much. I believe that the Pelicans wanted to stand-pact and not offload all their assets in order to wait and see who the next superstar to ask out will be. Do they need another star scorer? I don’t know. Neither does the front office because we haven’t seen the team at full strength for any substantial period of time. As much as I wanted OG, Bojan, or Bridges, I think it will ultimately be for the better that we didn’t overpay for any of them.
Here’s a look at the Pelicans first round picks going forward:
2023 NOP/LAL (more favorable)
2024 NOP/MIL (more favorable)
2024 or 2025 LAL
2025 NOP
2026 NOP/MIL (more favorable)
2027 MIL
2027-2029 NOP
The Pels got a treasure chest of picks from the AD and Jrue Holiday trades, and have still yet to fully reap the rewards. The Pelicans are blessed with a lot of flexibility going forward. They have all the picks needed to complete a big trade, including intriguing young players on good contracts.
Final Thoughts
Overall, the Pelicans are a hard team to get a definitive read on. It’s impossible to know what this core truly can be yet. Even if the current core isn't the formula to a championship team, the Pelicans have the assets to pivot if needed. This Deep Dive was a little more challenging for me to write because of how emotionally invested I am into this team. I did enjoy writing this, though, and I hope you found equal enjoyment in reading it!
(All stats are provided by cleaningtheglass.com and basketball-reference.com)
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